Environmental Compliance in Fleet Management: Today and Tomorrow
Pressure on the aviation industry to balance increasing air travel demand with environmental protection is at an all-time high. Air quality, ambient noise levels, water quality, energy use, waste management, and climate change remain some of the most noticeable areas of concern. The Environmental Protection Agency reported in 2019 that aircraft contributed 12 percent of U.S. transportation emissions and accounted for three percent of the nation’s total greenhouse gas production. In 2019 an Oliver Wyman Consultancy report estimated that jet fuel demand would increase globally through 2035. Although COVID-19 impacted that forecast, industry experts agree that the growing need for air travel, freight, and defense needs will continue to drive demand and raise emissions. Efficient fleet process management and streamlined data systems can help lower emissions by finding more effective maintenance, inventory, and logistics solutions that reduce unnecessary supply & operating processes.
Evolving environmental guidelines have affected the aviation industry’s fleet maintenance protocols, and with new environmental policies from the Biden administration, additional regulatory changes are to be expected. For the world to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 as prescribed in the Paris Agreement and maintain the prescribed safe level of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the aviation industry will have to find a way to lower emissions. Accurate measuring and forecasting of these emissions is paramount in effectively capturing data and forecasting to prepare for the future.
Through the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the aviation industry has committed to cut CO2 emissions in half by 2050 with innovative technologies, sustainable aviation fuel, and improved operations and infrastructure. Although the industry only accounts for 2–5% of manmade carbon emissions world-wide, its fuel consumption is staggering, with over 106 billion gallons consumed in 2019 alone. ((EIA), 2020) For many airlines, replacing older aircraft with new, more efficient aircraft is a significant part of the effort, something that COVID-19 has slowed. Small changes to existing aircraft can also help. For example, American Airlines said it decreased fuel use by 4% by installing small vertical pieces, called winglets, onto the ends of wings on most of its planes. This is now standard on almost all new equipment. The devices improve the wing’s lift by changing its aerodynamic profile.
A similar shift to reduce carbon emissions is occurring throughout the transportation industry. For marine shipping, the United Nations International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set targets for greenhouse gas to be reduced by 50% in 2050.
Impact of Emerging Fuel Technologies
To complement fuel efficiency measures in aviation, scientists have been exploring Direct Air Capture (DAC) technologies. DAC pulls in atmospheric air, then through a series of chemical reactions, extracts carbon dioxide while returning the rest of the air to the environment. The cost per ton for this process has improved significantly in the last decade, but still remains incredible energy intensive.
For the foreseeable future, liquid fuels are the only viable energy source to power commercial aircraft. “Batteries and fuel cells are not options for regional aircraft and larger, which are the source of CO2 within the next 30 years.” (National Academies of Sciences, 2016). Perhaps a future solution will come from the work being done by Carbon Engineers™. They plan to use DAC extraction to make synthetic fuels that can substitute for diesel, gasoline, or jet fuel. The industry could benefit from data driven models that show the viability of DAC as energy prices drop and technology improves with time. The most significant environmental evolutions in the future will involve replacing combustion engines with something more efficient, like electric propulsion. In fact, United Airlines announced February 10, 2021 that it has placed a $1 billion pre-order for electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) aircraft made by Silicon Valley startup Archer Aviation, with the option to buy an additional $500 million worth of aircraft. Although these aircraft can offer short-range taxiing services, they are no solution for mid to long range flights as of now.
Hydrogen (H2) powered aircraft are being developed and may one day be possible for mid and large-scale use. The first hydrogen fuel-cell powered flight of a small commercially viable aircraft occurred on September 23, 2020 with a ZeroAvia customized Piper M-class aircraft. This UK based company’s HyFlyer project aims to develop scalable hydrogen/electric hybrid propulsion and also the infrastructure to fuel them. Completely emission free, hydrogen fuel-cell technology is innovating at a rapid pace with small companies like PDC Machines innovating for a multitude of applications.
Although decades away, modified DAC synthetic fuels and the eventual rise of electric and hydrogen powered planes will necessitate a complete pivot for fleet management infrastructure.
COVID-19 Impact on Fleet
Global air travel was increasing at a steady rate in the past decade. Before COVID-19, Oliver Wyman Consulting predicted that the worldwide fleet would expand by 42% in the next ten years. Due to sheltering guidelines and travel bans, earlier this year, over 17,000 aircraft were grounded. The impact of this market retraction is being felt across every aspect of the industry and those fleet expansion figures are sure to see a drop.
The two major aircraft manufacturers announced earlier this year that production of some of their legacy long-haul aircraft is suspended. Some airlines that were looking to retire older planes in the fleet have canceled orders and prefer maintaining existing aircraft over purchasing new. These decisions are primarily based on cost and maximizing the value of current capital investments; conversely however, parts do become more difficult to source and work on as the fleet ages.
In addition, MRO (Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul) inventory and repair forecasts are based on not only how aircraft have been used in the past, but also on what new updates have been made to the fleet. During the COVID pandemic, more aircraft within the fleet sit on the ground, and some aircraft are sitting on the ground longer. This condition may not improve rapidly, as consumer sentiment, and demand for air travel recovers more slowly. Grounded aircraft require additional maintenance, and additional maintenance can lead to an increase in human-induced problems.
As we look past COVID-19 travel restrictions, the focus will be on helping MRO operators do a better job with what they have. As discussed previously, implementing data driven fleet management solutions that use predictive and preventative analytical tools will be a major step forward within the industry.
The future of fleet management and optimization of fleet health is dependent on networks, devices, and data. In the future, IoT (Internet of Things) will allow aircraft sensors and devices to communicate securely with others and bring that data to a network. AI and machine learning will facilitate advanced predictive decision tools and automated processes. Although we can safely predict that consumer demand will rebound, aircraft orders are down in numbers and operators now have to deal with more extensive management of aging fleets. COVID-19 has been a major disruptor in this industry and its effects will be felt for more years to come. It is a complex situation; do you have a theory on how this the COVID-19 impact will play out over across this region?
